The weather will remain unsettled this weekend across much of the Eastern and Central US as the slow-moving storm system begins to finally depart the country. Before then, many areas will have to deal with showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be severe. There will also be the risk for flooding across areas that may have already experienced flash flooding earlier this year.
A wave of low pressure riding the warm front of the main storm system will bring severe weather to parts of the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon and evening. The radar picture is quiet this morning, but it’s not until the latter half of the day when scattered, hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will enter the region. Some of these storms will be severe, containing damaging winds and small hail. The setup thankfully will be non-conducive for the development of a tornado.
Farther south and west, there’s a secondary area we’ll be watching in terms of a severe weather risk thanks to a different wave of low pressure riding a cold front. That area will span from the Red River Valley through much of the Southeast, including the northern Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas. Parts of the western Ohio River Valley may also be at risk for a few stronger storms. This morning, there are a few clusters of thunderstorms tracking east across the Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Much of this precipitation will weaken and eventually dissipate midday. It’s not until scattered thunderstorms develop during the late-afternoon to evening hours. Both the HRRR and NAM models are not too excited about this thunderstorm threat, especially the HRRR, which shows very widely-scattered storms. Then there’s the NAM model which only develops very spotty storms but also a complex of storms across the Red River Valley. Either way, some locations at risk for severe weather will deal with storms while other areas will be completely dry. Damaging winds will be the main risk but large hail will be possible in a few areas. A couple tornadoes also cannot be ruled out.
There is one last area to be watched for isolated severe storms, including on the leeward side of the Wyoming and Colorado Rocky Mountains and into portions of the Northern and Central Plains. This threat will arise as scattered storms form in the afternoon across this part of the Plains and back into the interior Northwest.
Now in the Northeast where most areas will just deal with rounds of rain and sub-severe thunderstorms, low clouds and high humidity will dominate much of the day. Instability will be highest at the coast, so that’s where there’s the best chance for thunderstorms. Otherwise, it will just be an ugly, unsettled day with the chance for rain at really anytime of the day. In parts of the eastern Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of New England, the model guidance does suggest several hours of a break from the precipitation during much of the afternoon, but the low clouds may still produce a mist. Therefore, if you have any outdoor activities planned, we suggest you move them inside or cancel them.
Overnight across the East, many of the showers and thunderstorms will dissipate thanks to the loss of the daytime heating. There will still be the chance for showers in some areas, but the radar picture will turn quiet overall.
Then on Sunday, the severe weather risk will be lower. The only region that may still experience isolated severe thunderstorms is in parts of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. In the morning hours, a few showers and storms will be possible across the region. Those will then dissipate midday before additional scattered showers and storms possibly develop in the late-afternoon and into the first half of Sunday night. Damaging winds will be the primary risk with these storms.
Meanwhile over the Central Plains, a severe weather outbreak will be likely as a new storm system develops east of the Rocky Mountains. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will all be possible as scattered lines of thunderstorms explosively develop in the afternoon and eventually evolve into a powerful MCS, or mesoscale convective system, by Sunday night over Kansas. The Storm Prediction Center is doubling-down on this severe threat, saying, “Significant severe storms capable of destructive winds, very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible on Sunday across much of Kansas into northern Oklahoma, and into eastern Texas Panhandle.”
For the remainder of the East, it will be a quieter and nicer day overall with sunshine making a bigger presence, but it will be warmer and humid, especially in the Northeast. In the morning, showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible from the interior Northeast down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. Those storms will then track and expand to the east, putting much of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in play during the afternoon. The best risk for storms will away from the coast, but isolated storms still cannot be ruled out in areas like the I-95 corridor. Thankfully, these storms will not be severe.
On Monday, the weather will finally quiet down relatively speaking with mainly dry conditions across the Eastern US besides a few spotty storms in the Southeast. Showers and storms will also affect areas back toward the west into parts of the Northern and Central Plains and Midwest, however, especially in the afternoon.
Through Monday night, the heaviest of rain will be found in the Central Plains thanks to the MCS that develops, which will dump over 3 inches to some areas. Otherwise, across the rest of the Plains, with the exception of Texas which will be mostly dry, 0.5 to 2 inches of rainfall can be expected. Across the East Coast, most areas will receive less than 1 inch of rain. There are actually abnormally dry conditions arising in much of the Northeast, so every drop of rain is needed.