The risk for severe storms will continue this Saturday across much of the Plains, spanning from Nebraska and Iowa and on southward into western Texas. The main risks with these severe storms will be damaging winds and large hail, but there is a risk for several tornadoes as well. The best risk for tornadoes is in the greater Kansas City area. There is also the threat for a few, scattered severe storms in the eastern Ohio Valley.
A somewhat potent upper-level low pressure has emerged from the Rocky Mountains, and this low will be the ultimate driver of the severe storms and heavy rain in the Plains. As it moves east, however, it will weaken due to the dominant upper-level ridge over the Eastern US. In terms of the risk in the Ohio Valley, there will be some strong wind shear as well as instability that may spark a few stronger storms as moisture surges in all the way from the Caribbean Sea.
In the morning Saturday, there will be a widespread area of rain and embedded thunderstorms from southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado through much of Nebraska and northwestern Missouri. As we head into the afternoon on Saturday, the rain on the eastern side will become scattered as it lifts to the north and east toward Iowa and Illinois. Rain will remain persistent most of the day back toward the west with this large batch of rain. As daytime heating intensifies over the Central and Southern Plains, that will lead to the explosive development of scattered thunderstorms along a dry line beginning in the mid-afternoon.
Then overnight Saturday, the area of scattered thunderstorms over the Plains is expected to form into two different lines of storms: one near the Quad Cities and another moving through the Red River Valley. These storms will gradually weaken as they track east and the night progresses. There will also be a few showers that continue across the Central Plains.
As we move into Sunday, we’re expecting a new line of storms to develop around sunrise that will track to the east across central Texas. There will also be scattered thunderstorms once again in the Ohio River Valley that will evolve into a line of storms moving to the south. This line may contain damaging winds and small hail.
The risk for a few additional severe storms will exist into Monday from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic. Damaging winds and small hail will again be the main risks with these hit or miss thunderstorms.