The second half of the weekend will be quite active in terms of severe weather as strong thunderstorms are set to threaten millions from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast coast. Multiple waves of low pressure riding fronts with the main low pressure tracking through the Northeast will be the main drivers of this severe threat.
In the Eastern US, scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across the Mid-Atlantic will become more widespread in the afternoon while they begin to track into New England as well. Some of these storms may even turn severe across the southern Mid-Atlantic region up through the New York City Tri-State Area. Damaging winds will be the main threat associated with these storms. Farther south into much of the Southeast, it should be dry due to dry air and warm air aloft suppressing that storm risk. It’s not until you get into Florida and the Tennessee River Valley where storms will be possible, although a spotty storms can not be ruled out in the Carolinas and Gulf Coast.
Farther west, the severe weather threat will be even greater from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Due to numerous thunderstorm activity present in the morning, that has thankfully affected what the atmosphere could have been able to produce. Therefore, which we still expect numerous severe storms in some areas, the risk is not as high as it seemed on Saturday. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms tracking east across the region will weaken this afternoon, allowing for new thunderstorms to form to the west. Scattered storms will be common across the Northern Plains and interior Northwest, a few of which may turn severe, while a mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops over the Central Plains in the evening hours. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main risks with these storms, but a couple tornadoes will also be possible.
Looking ahead to Monday, we’ll see this MCS continue to take charge across the Central Plains. Thunderstorms will also be possible Monday morning in the Ohio River Valley while the last of the showers associated with the main low pressure leaves Maine, allowing for the Northeast to dry out for the first half of the new week. During the latter half of the day, the new low pressure will then dominate across the country, becoming the new main-driver of the weather. This new storm will ramp up the risk for several strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours from the Midwest through the Tennessee River Valley and Carolinas.
Due to these additional rounds of heavy thunderstorms across areas that have a somewhat saturated soil, some locations may experience localized flooding across the Plains and Midwest on either Sunday or Monday. While most of the East Coast receives less than half an inch of rain, many locations in the Northern and Central Plains and Midwest will receive over half an inch and over three inches in some spotty areas.