The start of the work week won’t come easy for some in the Central U.S. as the risk for severe thunderstorms returns. There will be two areas where severe storms are expected to develop: Minnesota and the Central Plains. A low pressure and its associated frontal boundary will be the instigator for the storms in Minnesota while a separate low pressure’s dry line near the Rocky Mountains will allow for the formation of strong to severe thunderstorms late in the day.
This morning, there is a batch of showers and thunderstorms moving eastward across Nebraska. This area of precipitation will develop into a line or two of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon while tracking into much of Iowa and Minnesota. Closer to the low, which will be in Minnesota, is where that best risk for strong storms to hit. The main risks will be damaging winds in excess of 58 mph and large half with a diameter of at least 1 inch. There is nearly zero chance for any tornadoes in this region. As these storms track toward Wisconsin and northern Illinois, they will weaken and dissipate during the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
Back toward the south and west, we think there is an even greater threat for severe weather across much of the Central Plains. During the mid-afternoon, a dry line will lead to the initiation of strong to severe storms over western Kansas. As these storms track to the east, maximizing the instability and moisture in place, they will expand into a more pronounced line of heavy thunderstorms, spanning from eastern Nebraska down through central Kansas. Its tail or southern extent may even reach the northern half of Oklahoma. These storms will peak in intensity in the evening, then due to the loss in daytime heating, they will weaken early in the morning on Wednesday. Much of this precipitation should dissipate, although scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected across portions of the Central Plains. There is a big time hail threat with these storms, especially in south-central Nebraska into north-central Oklahoma. The best risk for damaging winds will also include this same area, and there may even be a few tornadoes.
Looking ahead to the remainder of the week in term so severe weather, a new low pressure may lead to the development of isolated severe thunderstorms from the Front Range of Colorado into portions of Oklahoma and Kansas on Wednesday. That same storm will then push to the east and may fuel the risk for severe thunderstorms in the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys on Thursday. Meanwhile back toward the west, another new storm system will make its way into the Northwest. Therefore, the risk for severe storms will exist in parts of that region on both Wednesday and Thursday. Then by Friday, there is the chance for an outbreak of severe weather across parts of the Northern Plains.