A strengthening low pressure associated with a digging trough of low pressure will fuel the risk for severe thunderstorms across the Florida Peninsula and the immediate Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts on Thursday.
A rather substantial trough of low pressure aloft will aid in this severe weather event. This trough is expected to reach as far south as the Gulf Coast while beginning to take on a negative tilt, which is when a trough’s axis is angled from northwest to southeast. This type of tilt is often responsible for these severe weather scenarios that take place across the US. A few other ingredients that we will have are wind shear, instability, and moisture. Winds will vary by speed and direction in the column of the atmosphere, which will allow for intense thunderstorms in addition to the risk for a few tornadoes. There will also be instability and moisture, which gives the thunderstorms the extra energy to strength and maintain itself.
This threat will begin in the morning Thursday. A rather steady rain will be impacting most of the Southeast while we begin to see a strengthening line of thunderstorms moving into the western coast of the Florida Peninsula from the Gulf of Mexico. This line will impact northern and central portions of the Florida by midday while the storms wait until the afternoon and evening to reach the east coast of Florida and South Florida. Based on the timing of these storms, the central eastern coast of Florida will have the greatest risk for severe weather, consisting of damaging winds and tornadoes, due to the daylight heating begin maximized.
Meanwhile along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast, severe storms will be isolated. As the dry slot of the storms moves across the region later on in the day, that may allow for a few spotty thunderstorms to form. Otherwise, the main and substantial risk for any dangerous storms will be found in the Sunshine State Thursday.