As an area of low pressure and its associated cold front track to the east, that will bring in the threat for several severe storms, containing damaging winds and hail. There is also the risk for an isolated tornado in portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this Thursday.
Moisture will stream in from the south along with low to moderate amounts of instability. As strong winds aloft move through the warm sector of this storm, which is the area south of the warm front and east of the cold front, that will make for the risk for stronger storms. During the morning hours, lines of showers and thunderstorms will span from northwestern New England through the interior Northeast and into the eastern Ohio Valley and central Appalachian Mountains. Then into the afternoon, the picture will remain quite similar. A few more showers will become present in parts of northern New England while storms move into the I-95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic by late-day. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms will be possible farther south near the southern Appalachians and the Tennessee Valley due to the instability and daytime heating.
As the cold front tracks farther east, the moisture will become lackluster along the immediate East Coast and in much of New England, thus allowing for most/all of the precipitation to diminish before it reaches the coast Thursday night.
Then during the weekend, we’ll be watching the next chance for rain in the Northeast as a new area of low pressure slowly moves east from the Central Plains. On Friday, showers and some thunderstorms will be possible in the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. A few storms may also pop up in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
On Saturday, the eastward progress of the warm front will bring a line of rain to interior Northeast and much of New England during the day. This precipitation will stretch back into the Great Lakes region and central Midwest where the surface low pressure is located. This forecast remains uncertain, especially in the Northeast because the timing of the warm front will determine whether you will be able to salvage the day with mainly dry conditions. If it moves in slower, that would make for a wetter day, especially in New York and central New England.
Then on Mother’s Day on Sunday, the slow-moving cold front will move through from the north. This would bring in another round of rain to portions of the Ohio River Valley through southern New England and into the Mid-Atlantic as well. The wettest of weather on Sunday is expected to be found in the Mid-Atlantic region, but stay tuned for additional details.
Rain from these next two storm systems will be mainly light, amounting up to an inch in most areas.