A developing and strengthening low pressure currently over the southern Plains will head east, making its way toward the East Coast by late-week. Along with heavy rain will also be the risk for severe weather, especially from parts of Texas through the Gulf Coast states.
The rest of today and into tonight, severe weather will threaten southern and eastern Texas and most of Louisiana. All modes of severe storms will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. As we get into this evening, the low pressure will really get organized and will form a line of strong, intense storms across eastern Texas. This line will move east through tonight and will end up over Louisiana by the time the sun rises Thursday morning. Since the best risk for severe weather will be tonight, it’s crucial that your weather alerts are set on your phone in case dangerous weather threatens your local area.
Now on Thursday into Thursday night, the risk for severe weather will shift to the east, threatening the Gulf Coast from southern Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle. The best risk this time around will be for damaging winds, but spotty hail and tornado reports are expected. Based off the latest representation from the NAM model, the line of storms from Wednesday night will weaken as it tracks east through the Gulf Coast states during the day Thursday. Meanwhile just to the west, we’ll be watching a new line of storms that will develop. This will be the line that will pose that severe weather risk.
The Gulf Coast is not the only area that will be affected by this storm system. It will span all the way into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday as rounds of showers and storms along the warm front impact that region as well as the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, near the center of the low pressure, there will be a heavy, more persistent rain that is forecast to impact Arkansas and southern Missouri.
By Friday, this storm will impact the entire Eastern Seaboard with rain and thunderstorms expected from Maine through Florida. The rain will be more persistent and widespread across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic while the showers and storms will be more scattered to perhaps isolated across the Southeast. There will even be the risk for isolated severe storms across the Florida Peninsula and from the Tidewater of Virginia through northeastern South Carolina.
By Saturday, most of the eastern US will dry out — at least for a brief time — with the exception of lingering rain showers in New England. There will also be the risk for some snow across parts of Upstate New York and northern New England Friday night into Saturday, but accumulations will be limited.