A new storm system that has developed over the Central Plains will track across the US through the end of the work week, bringing a new round of showers and storms to portions of the Central and Eastern US. Some of these storms may even turn severe, especially in the Midwest, in additional to the localized risk for flash flooding.
On Monday, a line of rain and thunderstorms associated with Sunday night’s storms will affect the area from the eastern South Dakota through the eastern Central Plains and into western Missouri. By the midday time frame, however, this area of convection will weaken and much of the precipitation should dissipate, although rounds of rain and thunderstorms will continue near the center of low pressure in the eastern Northern Plains and the western Midwest region through the duration of the day.
Unlike a typical thunderstorm event when they form in the afternoon and dissipate overnight, it will be quiet in most areas during the afternoon across the rest of the Midwest until Monday night. A line of scattered thunderstorms will likely develop after sundown, spanning from eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin down through Missouri.
There will also be a severe component with these storms, both during the day and at night. The best risk for storms of this strength will be in Iowa near the triple point. Not only will severe storms be possible in the Midwest, but they will also be possible through parts of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and into the Carolinas. Damaging winds will be the main risk accompanied with these storms, but a few of these storms may produce large hail and/or a couple tornadoes.
The storm will track east on Tuesday, setting its target on areas to the north and east. The line of storms from Monday night will weaken during the first few hours of Tuesday morning as they reach the western Ohio River Valley. Rounds of showers and storms will pivot through much of the Upper Midwest throughout the day Tuesday thanks to the close proximity to the low pressure. There will also be a few afternoon storms that pop up and affects the Ohio River Valley.
Once again, the “main show” will be overnight as energy works in from the west. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front, initializing from northeastern Kansas through central Iowa. These storms will track to the south and east overnight, but the line will become more scattered as it reaches the Ohio River Valley. Some of these storms will reach severe criteria, packing damaging winds and small hail. An isolated tornado will also be possible.
On Wednesday, the low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region, bringing scattered thunderstorms into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Portions of the Tennessee River Valley may also experience some hit or miss shower and thunderstorm activity. Spotty storms will also extend into western portions of the Mid-Atlantic during the latter half of the day. Cities like Pittsburgh, State College, Baltimore, and Washington, DC will all be at risk for yet another round of rain.
By Thursday, the synoptic-scale storm will track into southeastern Canada but that does mean the impacts to the US will be over. As the cold front moves through, ushering in a drier and nicer air mass to the Central US, scattered showers and storms will become a threat to the eastern Mid-Atlantic and New England on Thursday. Some of these storms will be heavy as tropical moisture streams in from the south, so localized flooding will remain a threat associated with this storm system.
On Friday, other than a few spotty showers and storms across the interior Northeast, the region will dry out while much of the Central US remains dry until the new weekend when a new low pressure may develop over the Plains.
Generally between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rainfall can be expected across most areas, but localized areas will receive in excess of 3 inches in the Midwest and Ohio River Valley, which may lead to spotty flooding this week.