On Monday into Tuesday, a tornado and severe weather outbreak is expected to occur as a strengthening storm system arrives from the west associated with a potent mid-level disturbance. That strong synoptic-scale storm combined with high levels of wind shear, allowing for a spinning motion to the air which can fuel tornadoes, high moisture, warm temperatures, a high levels of instability will allow for a significant risk for severe thunderstorms.
The severe weather risk will be located across much of the Southeast on Monday. Showers and storms across the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and South Carolina will clear offshore during the morning hours. These storms are actually associated with Sunday’s severe weather event, which impacted the Gulf Coast states. So by the afternoon, these storms will be offshore and over the Atlantic, allowing for skies to clear and instability to increase. Meanwhile back toward the west, our storm system will begin to move into the region. Showers and storms near the center of the low pressure will move through the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys through the evening hours while a line of storms move through portions of northern Mississippi and Alabama from the late-afternonon through the early evening. Then overnight, that line will move into northern Georgia before breaking up as it moves into upstate South Carolina early-Tuesday morning. Ahead of this line of storms is expected to be a separate batch of storms, which may be severe, as they move from central Alabama and Georgia from the mid-afternoon to South Carolina by the middle of the night.
The highest risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes will be found in central Tennessee, northeastern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and northwestern Georgia, particularly in northern Alabama.
Then as we get into Tuesday, the severe weather threat will continue but across a different region as a secondary disturbance moves in on the heel of the first one. This next threat for severe weather will affect areas further south and east, including coastal South Carolina and Georgia and the northern and central Florida Peninsula. These storms will pose the same risks as on Monday, including damaging winds, large hail, and several tornadoes. The morning is expected to be dry on Tuesday, but once we get into the afternoon hours, storms will pop. Scattered and more discrete storms may develop in coastal Georgia and South Carolina while a squall line moves in from the Gulf of Mexico into Florida. Thankfully with this threat on Tuesday, it will primarily be during the afternoon and evening hours. By Tuesday night, much of the activity will move offshore besides the isolated and leftover thunderstorm in central and southern Florida.
Cities at the greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday include: Charleston, Savannah, Jacksonville, and Orlando.