With an over-performing system in the south, and energy digging deeper across the Ohio Valley, it’s clear that our storm will come further west than originally anticipated, bringing higher totals to the major east coast cities and further inland. With new data and analysis, we’ve bumped up snowfall totals and shifted things slightly west yet again, reflecting the new information that we have.
The worst of the storm will spread along and just to the east of the I-95 corridor from Richmond to Boston, bringing a swath of 4-7 inches, with localized areas seeing up to 8 inches. To the west of this swath, the cutoff will be pretty sharp, with totals rapidly dropping the further inland you go. Central Pennsylvania and central New York will be lucky to squeeze out flurries from this event. To the east of this swath, totals will also be lower, but due to mixing with the low now being much closer to the coastline. The extreme eastern end of Long Island and southern Massachusetts will probably mix in with rain and sleet at times, keeping totals generally under 5 inches.
The sweet-spot for this storm will likely be up in southeastern Maine, where further development of our low will allow heavier snow to fall, and between 7 and 10 inches to accumulate. It’s possible that someone in the region nears a foot before all is done on Sunday morning.
Overnight the snow will slowly advance north and by 4 AM we expect flakes to be flying across Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia and just south of the Big Apple. During the early and mid-morning hours this snow should advance north covering the rest of the I-95 corridor south of Maine, up into parts of eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts and parts of southern Vermont and New Hampshire. By early afternoon the snow will continue to expand not only north, but west as well, now covering the entire eastern half of Pennsylvania, Albany, southern Vermont and New Hampshire, and parts of southern Maine just south of Bangor. As the sun sets, we expect the rest of the region forecasted to see snow to fill in with the white stuff, as the storm begins to end to our south across the Mid-Atlantic.
Overnight tonight we’ll see snow gradually end from south to north, with most of the region clear by time the sun comes up on Sunday with the exception of eastern Maine. The storm will provide an extra kick for this region, and snow should continue to fall even through the early and mid-morning hours, hence the higher totals for these areas.
By afternoon, we expect everyone to be done with the snow, as some lake effect follows behind for parts of Pennsylvania and Upstate New York. The next system won’t be too far behind, with more snow possible for the Northeast by early and midweek. Stay tuned.