Last week we began discussing the possibility of a winter threat for both the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, but by early this week, the threat looked to have diminished with not a lot of energy interaction and a fast moving storm that would stay offshore. Well, things have changed.
We discussed in an article earlier this week that if we had more interaction between our two upper-level jet-streams, there would be a chance for this system to move further northwest and bring snow to the I-95 corridor. This appears to be the exact case now. With more phasing, our low is adjusting closer to the coastline, greatly increasing the chance of accumulating snow from Richmond to Washington to New York City to Boston (not to mention further to the south as well).
With confidence now increasing, we’ve gone ahead and released our first official call for the weekend storm, forecasting some areas to receive as much as half a foot of snowfall by Sunday.
Taking a look at the map above, our first call is forecasting an area of 3-6 inches from western North Carolina up to near the Richmond VA area. This will be a heavy, wet snowfall. That same area extends into parts of southern Delaware and New Jersey, but away from the immediate shoreline.
Further north, surface temperatures will be colder, so we expect most of the snow falling to stick. Long Island and up into southern New England should see much of the same, with between 3 and 6 inches of snowfall possible. Getting into northern New England, 3-6 inches of snowfall can also be expected, with some higher elevations possibly exceeding that in the next update.
This is still very much a fluid situation, meaning guidance is still trending, and totals may be upped once again. We are not confident enough at this time to call for more than 6 inches of snowfall, but if that were to happen, the region most likely to receive those amounts would be in central or northern New England. You can expect another update with further analysis tomorrow.