Frigid temperatures felt the last two days will slowly warm this weekend, despite remaining below average. Tonight into Saturday, light snow and freezing rain can be expected for the Northern and Central Appalachians, while the rest of the East Coast will see light to moderate rain. Finally, another storm system at the beginning of next week could cause messy rain and snow for the Northeast.

This is the Friday edition of your Morning Briefing. Let’s get started.

Temperatures Slowly Rise This Weekend, While Still Below Average:

  1. Yesterday, record low temperatures of up to 30 degrees below average were recorded this Thanksgiving for the Northeast. Temperatures this morning will remain well below freezing, accompanied by wind chill of about -5 degrees in some places.
  2. Temperatures will slowly rise throughout the weekend as high pressure dominates the region aloft. By Saturday night, temperatures will likely rise closer to, and above, freezing.
  3. Both highs and lows will remain below average, even as it slowly warms this weekend. However, temperatures should only be up to 10 degrees below average for most of the Northeast.

As higher pressure aloft moves over the East, we’ll start to slowly defrost from this mid-week freeze. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night dropped well below freezing, up to 30 degrees below average. Record low Thanksgiving temperatures were set in a few cities. Fortunately, temperatures will be on the rise today and the rest of the weekend while high pressure dominates the region aloft. Despite a slight warming, temperatures will remain below average in most places for the Northeast. Temperatures will likely be closer to 10 degrees below average Friday night, continuing to warm as the weekend goes on. As we head into colder months, subfreezing nights will become more and more common. This taste of winter we got this week was only the beginning.

Rain for the East Coast and Mixed Precip for the Appalachians Tonight into Saturday:

  1. A cold front will develop today over the Central US, moving eastward this weekend. It should likely be off the East Coast by late Saturday night.
  2. Precipitation will mostly be rain, dropping 1-2 inches over the east coast, from the Mid-Atlantic states all the way up to New England.
  3. Snow and freezing rain can be expected for the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight, and for the Northern and Central Appalachians early Saturday. Snow is not expected to be heavy, but any icy mix can cause hazardous road conditions which could affect holiday travel this weekend.

Several low pressure systems will move across the country this weekend, the most relevant of which is currently over the Central US. This system’s developing cold front will move across the country, leading just ahead of the next shortwave trough aloft. Lift along this cold front will cause precipitation from the Mississippi River Valley to the East Cost today and tomorrow. As it reaches the Mississippi Valley tonight, precipitation will mostly be rain after temperatures warmed back up above freezing. However, the upper Mississippi Valley should see light snow showers, with little accumulation throughout the night. Early Saturday, the system will have moved towards the coast. It will produce 1-2 inches from the Mid-Atlantic states up to New England by Saturday night. For the Upper and Central Appalachians, light snow and freezing rain will be a concern, as lower temperatures will cause mixed conditions. Icy precipitation will lead to messy and slippery roads Saturday, causing hazards for holiday travel.

Storm System Early Next Week Could Mean More Snow for the Northeast:

  1. A storm system is likely to move into the Northeast Sunday night into Monday. It will likely affect from the Mid-Atlantic states all the way north to the Great Lakes and New England.
  2. Snow is possible with this storm, especially for higher altitudes, the interior Northeast, northern New England, and parts of the Great Lakes. This could cause some messy travel conditions Monday morning.
  3. Otherwise, precipitation with this system will mostly be rain for the rest of the region. Depending on timing and intensity, rain could be moderate to heavy and should be monitored.
  4. There is still a high uncertainty for this system, and models have yet to converge more closely on a solution.

Sunday night into Monday, models show a possibly troublesome storm brewing for the Northeast. Although uncertainty is still high, colder temperatures from the passage of Saturday’s cold front could mean some more snow for the interior Northeast, northern New England, and parts of the Great Lakes. As of now, precipitation for most of the region would be rain, but this rain could be heavy at times, and possibly mixed with frozen precip. Guidance has yet to converge on a solution, but it is a possibility that this storm could cause some trouble traveling during rush hour Monday morning. With overall warmer temperatures to start with, this storm would be much less than the big storm we saw last week, but could still cause some minor issues if timing and intensity match up. After its passage, flow will open up again to much colder temperatures across the eastern half of the US.

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Also remember to lookout for The Sunday Storm this upcoming Sunday evening as well as Five Things to Watch This Week next Monday.


Kathleen is a writer and meteorological consultant at WeatherOptics. A recent graduate from Stony Brook University, Kathleen has earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Previously, she has done research on the role of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification and forecasted for local pages like SBU Weather.

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