More rainy weather this weekend for the East coast, with temperatures across most of the country possibly 20 to 30 degrees above average. Then, after a brief lull of high pressure, another round of low pressure comes through, which could mean a chance of snow for the Northeast early next week.

This is the Friday edition of your Morning Briefing. Let’s begin.

Another Rainstorm for the East Coast Today and Saturday:

  1. Low pressure will move into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, with a few bouts of moderate to heavy rain likely early Saturday morning. Rainfall will likely last until Saturday evening, after it begins tapering off Saturday afternoon.
  2. Across the region, rainfall totals can be expected around 1-1.25″, with the heaviest likely falling over NE NJ, LI, and Interior CT. A chance for convection over these areas could provide locally higher totals as well as minor flooding.
  3. The dominate precipitation-type with this system will be rain. Some snow is expected at the very north of ME, and possibly trailing behind the storm downwind of the Great Lakes. Accumulations will be little to none.

The same storm system that caused flooding for the Southeast and snow/ice for the Southern Plains will become a widespread rain event for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend. Early this evening, Mid-Atlantic states should see increasingly cloudy skies, followed by relatively light rain and the storm begins to enter the region. Overnight, rain will pick up and likely become heavy at times. Because of this storm’s track and unseasonably warm temperatures, it will be stocked full of moisture that it retained from the Gulf. This will lead to rainfall totals for the region of 1-1.25″ by the time rain ends early Saturday evening.

Unseasonably Warm Temperatures Across the Country This Weekend:

  1. This weekend, pressure aloft will switch over most of the country from low to high, changing flow to more southerly.
  2. This change in flow will be the cause of much warmer temperatures over most of the country this weekend, with only the exception of the West coast.
  3. Afternoon highs in the Northeast can be expected to be 10-15 degrees above average, with moisture from the Atlantic helping to keep temperatures mild. Highs over the Central Plains could possibly reach 20-30 degrees above average this weekend.
  4. This trend likely won’t change until an overall pattern change is seen, likely within the next 2-3 weeks

As low pressure moves off of the East coast tomorrow, the pattern across the country will change to an almost completely dominant high pressure aloft. This anticyclonic flow is what will essentially block cold, Canadian air from coming into the country. Flow mainly from the south will advect warmer temperatures further north, which is what will keep precipitation with this weekend’s storm almost all rain. While most of the Northeast is seeing milder temperatures already, as we go into the weekend, we can expect highs in the afternoon to be 10-15 degrees warmer than average for the region. In the Central Plains, highs this weekend are expected to be 20-30 degrees above average. Milder temperatures likely won’t change to colder, bitter winter temperatures until the overall pattern changes, likely in a 2-3 weeks.

Low Pressure out West Could Become Small Snow Event for East:

  1. This weekend, a shortwave trough aloft will aid in the development of a surface cyclone over the Pacific Northwest Coast. This system will drop rain on the coast, and heavy mountain snow over Northern CA and the Sierra Nevadas.
  2. The same shortwave trough will move eastward, before developing another cyclone over the Central and High Plains early Monday.
  3. Although still subject to change, this storm could bring some small snow/ice accumulations to the Northeast on Tuesday, mostly focused on Upstate NY and New England. Further south, precipitation will likely be all rain.

While most of the country experiences a brief lull in weather events this weekend, the Pacific West Coast waits for the onset of a strong storm system. This incoming storm will mean rain for the coast, and heavy mountain snow for Northern CA and the Sierra Nevadas. This surface system will be associated with another round of incoming shortwave troughs. By early next week, these troughs will have made their way further east, and will be the cause for more cyclonic development. Early Monday, a storm system will develop over the Plains and continue to move eastward until hitting the coast. Although exact precip-type is hard to determine this far out, models seem to be in agreement for a light snow/wintry-mix event for parts of Upstate NY and New England.Temperatures will still not be low enough for a widespread snow event, but a wintry mix is definitely expected, at least near the storm’s onset.

Are you tired of all of this rain and just can’t wait for some snow? Be sure to check out this week’s Sunday Storm where we’ll discuss when and how our pattern change will come.

You can subscribe to The Morning Briefing on the right-hand side of this article so we can send the Wednesday and Friday editions straight to your inbox. Also rememeber to look out for the Five Things to Watch this Week this upcoming Monday!

Author

Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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