The powerful system that has wreaked havoc on the country since Wednesday will finally begin to move offshore today, but not before leaving a final risk for moderate to severe weather, excessive rainfall, and flash flooding. After its passing, warm temperatures that many will feel today should cool slightly before a much more significant warm up next week across the East. In addition, the Northeast can expect on and off showers all weekend, while the rest of the country enjoys mostly dry weather.

Welcome to the Friday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning. Let’s begin.

Wind, Tornadoes, and Flooding Up and Down East Coast:

  1. This week’s powerful system has finally arrived on the East coast, and it means business. A line of convective storms will form in the early afternoon, capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and dangerous tornadoes in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
  2. As daytime heating helps to destabilize the boundary layer, a cold front will march towards the coast before providing sufficient lift to create these dangerous severe storms. The most powerful of these storms are expected to pass over NC, SC, and VA late this afternoon into early evening.
  3. Within these storms, the two main risks will be damaging high winds (with gusts up to 74 mph possible) and some tornadoes. In the event of severe weather, it is important to stay up-to-date with the weather in your area and heed any local warnings, watches, and, advisories.
  4. To the north, severe storms will likely not make an appearance this early in the season, but some thunderstorms could easily make it as far north as ME. The real threat in the Northeast with this storm is widespread flash flooding due to excessive rainfall and snow melt.
  5. Up to 2″ of rain is likely to fall over the region by the end of the day, with locally higher amounts possible. This means that extremely heavy rain could quickly flood streets and rivers, especially in urban, low-lying, and other flood-prone areas.

Near-Record Warm Temps Cool Down this Weekend:

  1. Warm weather has continued to build this week, finally producing some well-above average highs for today. With a strong cold front to make its way through this afternoon/evening, temperatures should drop significantly through the weekend.
  2. Replacing our low pressure trough aloft will soon be a high pressure ridge, changing the overall flow into the Northeast. Slightly cooler air will replace the warm, moist Gulf air that has flooded into the region all week.
  3. This slight cool-down likely won’t last long, as temperatures across the region return to the 70s as early as Tuesday.

Northeastern Showers; Mostly Dry Elsewhere:

  1. While most of the country enjoys a dry holiday weekend, the Northeast will see relatively consistent showers until Monday. This continuous rain will likely not help in the relief of any flooding that may come from today’s storms.
  2. Showers from today will linger in the Northeast well into Saturday, keeping a pretty consistent drizzle going after some heavy downpours overnight. While this rain won’t amount to much more accumulation, it will certainly add to a bit of a dreary, muggy weekend.
  3. In other areas of the US, high pressure aloft will keep warm, dry conditions in place for the majority of the weekend. Saturday will be particularly warm out West, with some record-breaking highs possible.

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Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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