Throughout the last week of April, rain, storms, and flooding will continue to be the main headlines. Three different systems will bring rain to the Northeast this week, while rain and snowpack melt are likely to cause some flooding across parts of New England. To the south, upper level energy will bring some risk for severe weather through Thursday.

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a quick rundown on everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning. Let’s dive right in.

Warm, Wet Week for Northeast:

  1. Three separate rainy systems will pass through the Northeast this week, each time bringing only a little more than an inch to the region. Coupled with warm temperatures hovering in the 60s and low 70s, we can expect a muggy week ahead of us. Spring is most certainly here.
  2. The first system to pass through the region already dropped most of its rain yesterday. As this low pressure center moves into the Gulf of Maine this morning, the remaining moisture in the comma head will drop up to 0.5″ of rain over Northern New England into this evening.
  3. Tomorrow, a second low pressure system will track over the Great Lakes and into Ontario by Thursday morning. As it moves eastward, so will its sweeping cold front. This front will not be strong enough to produce severe weather, but some thunderstorms and moderate rainfall can be expected with its passage. Temperatures will also likely drop into the lower 60s/high 50s Thursday after its passage.
  4. Our last low pressure system will move into the region Friday, and will be connected to the same upper energy that is producing days of severe storms over TX. This storm will be heavier than the previous two, with totals over an inch possible. More exact details of timing and rainfall of this storm will become more clear as we get closer to the event.

Spring Snowmelt to Cause More Flooding:

  1. Flooding will likely cause some issues this week as the effects of Spring uproot the last of Winter. A combination of frequent rain and snowmelt will cause a few flooding and flash flooding issues for some rivers across the Northeast.
  2. Three separate rainy systems this week will kick Spring flooding through the Northeast into action. Much of the Connecticut River can expect flooding in CT, VT, and NH, as well as Lake Champlain, St John River, and Fore River in NY and ME.
  3. More severe flooding in Northern MI and parts of WI is due to heavy rainfall this past weekend combined with snowpack melt as well.
  4. Flooding advisories and warnings will likely continue throughout the week, and even into next week. It is very important to heed local warnings and watches, and if you come across a road or path that is flooded, turn around, don’t drown!

Days of Severe Weather Across Texas:

  1. Severe weather will continue to inch its way across TX and the Southeast this week, bringing risks ranging from damaging winds to flooding rains to some hail.
  2. A powerful cut-off low aloft will lead to the development of the surface low that is to affect the Southern Plains later today. Intense Gulf moisture combined with sufficient instability and lift will be the ingredients for some strong severe thunderstorms, mostly centered across Central TX this afternoon.
  3. Within these storms, tornadoes are not very likely, but some isolated tornadoes could develop within stronger discrete cells. More likely, high winds and heavy rainfall will be greater risks with these storms.
  4. With storms continuing to move east Wednesday, and possibly even Thursday, heavy and persistent rain will likely lead to some flooding. Up to 4″ will fall over parts of TX by Thursday morning, meaning urban, low-lying, and flood prone areas will be susceptible to flooding and flash flooding through the end of the week.

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Author

Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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