Moderate, almost spring-like temperatures across the East will last until late week, and two incoming systems will soak the Midwest and Northeast. Winter will be hard to come by this week, aside from some wintry-mix for portions of the Great Lakes and Northern New England today into tomorrow.

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a quick rundown on everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning.

Where Has Winter Gone?

  1. Bone-chilling winter temperatures are gone as quickly as they came this week with warm, almost spring-like temperatures in their place.
  2. High pressure builds aloft this week, with only a very weak shortwave trough today to make any sort of ripples. This will allow flow from the south to bring warm equator air in instead of the frigid arctic winds we felt last week.
  3. Many parts of the Northeast actually broke records, with high temperatures yesterday the warmest it’s been this time of the year in recorded history.
  4. Almost 100 degrees difference will be felt, especially in the Midwest, where wind chills last week reached -60. Now, temperatures across the East will likely remain well above freezing until the weekend.

Rain to Soak Ohio River Valley, New England, and Mid-Atlantic:

  1. After a relatively dry weekend for the region, two shortwave troughs will mean the development of surface cyclones that drop heavy rain over much of the East, the heaviest falling over the Ohio River Valley.
  2. The first system will be the lighter of the two, but will likely still drop 1-2″ of rain on the Ohio River Valley later this afternoon. Rain will spread from TX to NY overnight tonight, with an icy mix and snow in parts of Southern New England. This system will likely last until tomorrow night, but precipitation for the Ohio River Valley is not likely to stop until Friday.
  3. The second system will be much heavier, dropping several inches of rain from TX to ME by Thursday night. Ahead of the cold front will be the heaviest rain, as well as a marginal chance for severe weather. Thunderstorms, severe or not, could drop even MORE rain locally than depicted above.
  4. Little to no snow is expected during the second system, with some snow showers possible behind the cold front. This will mean that as far north as Maine will likely receive a heavy downpour by the end of the week, making it feel even more like spring.
  5. Minor to moderate flooding and flash flooding is expected throughout the region until Friday, and local alerts and warnings should be heeded.

Snow and Icy Mix For Great Lakes Tonight and Tomorrow:

  1. There is one place where winter will still be seen this week, and that is the Great Lakes and Northern New England. Tonight’s rain storms will turn into a wintery mix as they head north, not quite strong enough to push away winter.
  2. Temperatures hovering around freezing in the Great Lakes certainly feel nicer than 60 below, but a nose of warm air aloft will make conditions ripe for freezing rain and sleet during the storm’s passage tonight.
  3. Precipitation will likely start as sleet this evening for many areas, switching over to all freezing rain by Wednesday morning. This will make driving conditions extremely dangerous during both this evening and Wednesday morning’s commutes. Ice accumulations are expected to be up to 1/4 inch.
  4. Further north, mostly snow will be seen instead of ice, with accumulations up to 5″ possible.

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Kathleen is a writer and meteorological consultant at WeatherOptics. A recent graduate from Stony Brook University, Kathleen has earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Previously, she has done research on the role of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification and forecasted for local pages like SBU Weather.

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