Rain, flooding, and severe weather will dominate the forecast for the end of the week. Widespread thunderstorms can be expected for a few days east of the Rockies, as some storms become severe in the Southeast. To the north, days of rain and snowmelt will lead to some prolonged flooding.

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a quick rundown on everything you need to know weather-wise, every weekday morning. Let’s dive right in.

Continued Severe Weather Risk Over Texas:

  1. Parts of TX will likely wake up to some thunder this morning, but it won’t be until later in the afternoon or early evening that the risk for severe weather will really begin and continue into Thursday. Some strong severe storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, moderately sized hail, and even one or two isolated tornadoes.
  2. As temperatures rise into the high 70s this afternoon across TX and LA, instabilities will also rise. Moderate CAPE and steep lapse rates will allow air to rise and storms to pop up through the afternoon and into this evening.
  3. Possible large hail and damaging wind gusts from these storms will be hazards that extend into the overnight. One or two isolated tornadoes may also form in the late evening, sometime before midnight, as some multi-cells become more linear, especially over southeast TX and western LA.
  4. The risk for severe weather will continue Thursday as our same upper level low slowly meanders across the Deep South. A developed cold front moving across the gulf coast of LA in the early afternoon will provide lift for more severe development.
  5. Winds and hail will still be significant threats, but likely not as intense as today. An isolated tornado risk also exists, especially in the afternoon, as a possible squall line develops and moves eastward into the Deep South.

More Rain and Storms for Northeast:

  1. As rain clears out of the Northeast this morning, we’ll see a brief break in precipitation and clouds across the region. This break will unfortunately be short-lived, as unsettled weather will be back again early Friday to once again drench the region.
  2. The same upper-level energy that has the Southeast under the risk of severe weather will join with a digging shortwave trough from Canada, dipping down over the Northeast Friday and Saturday. A surface low out ahead of the upper-level low will be the culprit behind the rain and storms that spread over the region.
  3. Rain will creep in from the south, reaching PA and Western NY by mid-afternoon Thursday. Overnight, rain will spread over the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England, with a few pop-up thunderstorms likely as well, especially along the PA and NY coasts.
  4. Friday evening, precipitation will spread to northern New England as well, where some hi-res guidance suggests the possibility of some wintry precipitation along the Canada/US border. However, warming temperatures through the weekend will limit any lasting accumulations and would likely only add to flooding from snowmelt.

Flooding Over New England Continues Into Weekend:

  1. Despite the possibility of snow Friday night, flooding will remain a concern over parts of New England through the weekend. The combination of frequent on-and-off rain and continued snowmelt will increase flooding chances.
  2. The areas at highest risk for flooding are parts of NY, CT, VT, and NH along rivers that have already reached flood stage. The Connecticut River through CT and along the VT/NH border is already in minor flooding or near various flooding stages. In Upstate NY, areas along Lake Champlain are experiencing moderate flooding that is forecasted to last at least a few days.
  3. With rain and unsettled weather to remain in the area until Tuesday, flooding will likely remain a concern until the middle of next week. Additional snowfall and subsequent snowmelt could prolong flooding in northern New England through as far out as next weekend.

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Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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