Severe thunderstorms are expected throughout the Northeast today, bringing the threat of damaging winds and flash flooding. Flooding is also possible in the Northeast on Friday as storms make their way north. The country prepares to jump right into fall as cool weather finally arrives.
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of your Morning Briefing, where we’ll give you a mid-week rundown on everything weather-related. Let’s dive right in.
Severe Storms Threaten the Northeast Today:
- Scattered Severe Thunderstorms will be possible across the Northeast today into tonight, with the emphasis on New England and upstate NY.
- Flash flooding and damaging high winds are concerns for these storms, so be sure to heed local warnings and avoid dangerous conditions.
- Tornadoes are possible in areas of higher risk, especially where instability from daytime heating is enhanced.
The same cold front that brought severe storms to the Midwest yesterday is making its way to the Northeast today, bringing with it a line a convective, severe storms. As a shortwave trough moves across Canada and into Southern Quebec this afternoon, the associated cold front will swing right over the Northeast. Clashing with the warm, moist air that’s been in the region, there is potential for scattered severe thunderstorms throughout much of upstate NY, PA, and almost all of New England. Parts of western NY, eastern LI, and OH will not see as much instability due to cloud coverage this morning, hindering daytime heating to accelerate destabilization. However, moist and relatively warmer air, especially in PA and New England, will provide fuel for some cells to form in the late afternoon to early evening from the Hudson Valley to western ME. Although flash flooding during these storms is possible, damaging winds is the main concern for hazard. Tornado formation is also possible in some of these supercells.
Cooling Across the US Continues:
- A cool down is expected in the Northeast after severe storms pass with a cold front today into tonight. These cooling effects will be felt Thursday and for the rest of the week as low pressure continues to dominate in the north.
- A second, more intense cool down will occur for the Midwest and northern Plains later this week. This air from Canada can be over 15 degrees below average.
- Frost advisories are possible in these areas over the weekend as intense cooling happens.
After severe thunderstorms batter the Northeast today with more storms and rain, what will follow will be much colder, drier air. A low pressure trough aloft, currently residing over southern Manitoba, will push the high pressure that has been keeping warm, humid air trapped in many parts of the NE. Once low pressure dominates over the Northern US, temperatures will finally stay lower, summer will have officially ended, and fall now really begin. After this cool down over the Northeast, the Midwest and northern Central Plains will see another, more intense cool down later this week into the weekend. Cold Canadian air that hasn’t yet been able to make its way south will finally come down, bringing southeastward flow from a strong jet streak originating in British Columbia. This flow will dip into the Northern Plains and make its way across much of the northern US, bringing with it cold, dry air.
Check out a more in-depth analysis on these cooling temperatures here.
Flash Flooding Possible for the Northeast later this Week:
- Storms will start along a cold front moving over the south today and Thursday.
- These storms will follow flow up the east coast, using up energy from warm, moist air left over from the high pressure that dominated the Southeast for the better part of the week.
- Stay alert for flash flood warnings as these storms pass on Friday.
This low pressure trough will affect the Northeast later this week as storms that are expected to form in the Deep South later today and Thursday move north up the east coast with this flow. As of this morning, a cold front extends from Lake Huron all the way to Texas. As this front swings northeast throughout this week, these storms will track up the coast and bring possibly heavy rains with them. Some rain swaths of 1-2 inches will be observed moving over parts of the Hudson Valley and LI on Friday afternoon. Flooding similar to what the Northeast saw Tuesday afternoon is possible, however it likely won’t be as severe. More updates will come later this Wednesday as we track these storms and their flooding potential,
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Also remember to lookout for The Sunday Storm this upcoming Sunday evening as well as Five Things to Watch This Week on Monday.