Much of South Central Texas will continue to be under flash flood watch until Thursday. The Northeast will cool even more today into tonight after a second cold front passes through this afternoon. And while most of the country embraces Fall weather, Florida is still stuck in 80, even 90, degree heat.

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of your Morning Briefing. Let’s dive right in.

South Central Texas Record Breaking Flooding and Temperatures:

  1. Flood and Flash flood watches remain in effect across South Central TX until Thursday at 7pm CDT. This alerts will remain in effect, even when it is not raining. Ground in these areas is saturated, therefore, any amount of rain, even small amounts, will result in flooding.
  2. Another bout of heavier rains will occur Thursday as tropical moisture surges in from the Gulf. Combined with weak forcing, this will cause rainfall of 1-2 inches across the area, with 4 inches possible locally.
  3. Flooding downstream of the Colorado and Guadalupe Rivers is expected later this week, most likely Thursday night into Friday. This is due to more rainfall on Thursday and releases upstream.
  4. Temperatures in the area are finally making their way back up to much more seasonal temperatures in the 60s today and, finally, 70s tomorrow.

With the current jet pattern that’s in place, Texas will continue to be impacted by record breaking low temperatures and severe flooding. Temperatures in TX are not expected to even reach back into the 60s until this afternoon. The highs and lows over the region have been comparable to those in NY and PA earlier this week. Temperatures will finally begin to warm up as high pressure aloft creeps over the area. While the temperatures are becoming more reasonable, the rain is not. South Central TX will remain under flash flood watch until Thursday, when more heavy rains are expected. Not as much rain is expected today, however the ground in most of these areas is fully saturated from earlier downpours. This means that any rainfall, no matter how little, can produce flooding. Flooding downstream of the Colorado and Guadalupe Rivers will become an issue later this week from releases upstream. The last bout of heavy rainfall will come on Thursday, as an influx of tropical moisture and lifting will cause rain of 1-2 inches over South Central TX, with locally heavier rainfall of 4 inches possible. Weather in the area will continue to be unsettles until Sunday, when TX should finally see a break from showers and cloudy skies.

Read a more in-depth analysis by Meteorologist Josh Feldman of what’s been going on in Texas this week here.

Northeastern Freeze and Possible Snow:

  1. A cold front passing over the Northeast this afternoon will bring frigid, arctic air to the region. Highs today, before its passage will mostly remain in the 40s and 50s; while, tonight temperatures will drop down into the 20s and 30s.
  2. Freeze watches and warnings, as well as frost advisories, are already in effect for most of the Lower Great Lakes region, as well as parts of MA and upstate NY. These advisories are expected to extend to most of the NY and New England by tonight.
  3. Lake effect precip is expected to effect Upstate NY, as well as upslope areas in higher elevations. Showers could change to light snow, if cooling of the boundary layer allows.
  4. This arctic cold is not expected to last long, as flow becomes more westerly Thursday night, and temperatures return closer to seasonable.

The first few rounds of cooling over the last week have given the Northeast a taste of Fall, but the cold front that will swing across the region this afternoon will be bringing cold, Arctic air into the region. A much more winter-like shortwave trough is what’s responsible for this arctic surge. High temps today will remain in the 40s and 50s, similar to how they were yesterday, However, tonight after the cold front has passed, lows will be in in the 20s and 30s. Freeze watches, warnings, and frost advisories are already in effect for most of the Lower Great Lakes region. These advisories are expected to extend further into NY and New England tonight and into tomorrow morning. Some precip is expected with this passage, despite little moisture. Lake effect precip will effect parts of Upstate NY, and cooling of the boundary layer late tonight could cause rain to become snow in areas of higher altitude. This freeze should not last more than today and Thursday, however, as flow becomes more westerly.

Florida Holds on to the Last Bits of Summer:

  1. Oppressive heat remains in FL until the end of the week. Temperatures have remained close to record breaking at almost 10 degrees above average for this time of year.
  2. Highs this week have been in the 80s and 90s everyday, and highs today are expected to be in the low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland.
  3. Much more average temperatures are expected at the end of the week as the deep high pressure that has kept warm air over the area finally weakens.

While the rest of the country has experienced significant cool downs and shots of cool Autumnal air, FL remains in what seems to be eternal summer. Temperatures this week have remained in the high 80s and low 90s, which is near record breaking for this time of year. Due to a deep layer of high pressure and warm air aloft, FL is expected to continue to be nearly record breakingly warm. Relatively dry conditions aloft will lower the chances of any relief or cooling from precip as highs today are expected to be in the low 90s on the coast, and mid 90s inland. Temperatures are expected to become closer to average later this week as high pressure aloft weakens.

Make sure to subscribe to The Morning Briefing on the right-hand side of this article so we can send the Wednesday and Friday editions straight to your inbox.

Also remember to lookout for The Sunday Storm this upcoming Sunday evening as well as Five Things to Watch This Week on Monday.


Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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